Population projections

Image of Statistics NZ graph on projected ethnic populations of New Zealand 2013 - 2038

On 3 October 2017, Statistics New Zealand released an update of their population projections, which states that the four largest ethnic population groups in New Zealand are projected to grow between 2013 and 2038.

The four broad population groups are ‘Asian’, ‘Māori’, ‘Pacific’ and ‘European or Other’. Statistics New Zealand does not release population projections for the MELAA (Middle Eastern, Latin American and African) ethnicities, due to the size of these groups.

The key projections include:

  • the broad Asian ethnic group will increase the most, from 541,300 in 2013 to more than 1.2 million in 2038 (an increase of more than 122%)
  • the ‘European or Other’ population is growing, but not as fast as other ethnic populations
  • the Māori, Asian, and Pacific populations are growing faster because of their younger age structures – combined with higher birth rates or migration
  • the overall ethnic share of ‘European or Other’ is projected to fall from 75% of New Zealand’s population in 2013 to 66% in 2038

The key points for superdiverse Auckland include:

  • the broad Asian ethnic group in Auckland will increase the most, from 348,000 in 2013 to 788,000 in 2038 (an increase of about 126%)
  • the Pacific ethnic group is also projected to rise from 227,000 in 2013 to 367,000 in 2038 (an increase of about 62%)
  • the Māori population is projected to increase from 169,800 in 2013 to 257,600 in 2038 (an increase of about 52%)
  • the European or Other ethnic group’s population will grow from 886,400 in 2013 to 1,057,600 in 2038 (an increase of about 19%)